Political leaders face a tough year

As we enter the year 2000, I thought it appropriate to make some predictions about how I see political events unfolding throughout the new year.
I do so, not to be immodest, nor to imply that I am the font of all wisdom when it comes to matters political.
Although I have a considerable bank of knowledge to call upon – gained through my many years of public service to governments all persuasions – I have rarely offered my personal opinions to the public, except on occasions through this column.
This is therefore an appropriate forum for me to consider what the leading players on the Australian political stage may get up to during 2000.
Here, then, are my predictions for the coming year:

John Howard – Our prime minister is a much more relaxed and comfortable man since securing his second election victory in late 1998. But he still has an image problem – the curse of all modern, television-age politicians. I understand that in recent weeks several of his minders have been working on a major campaign of public appearances and interviews tentatively planned to start in late-January and designed to portray the real John Howard. This blueprint was recently outlined to the PM’s chief-of-staff and Liberal Party strategists who immediately scrapped it. A new strategy is now being worked out designed to secure a more positive image for our nation’s leader.

Kim Beazley – I do not think the Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition is a well man. I am led to believe from my Opposition sources that he will experience a major medical problem in the year 2000. Luckily for him it is likely to be the same affliction that befell former Senator Mal Colston, so Kim will maintain his present weight and will live for many a long year yet, perhaps even long enough to be prime minister.

Cheryl Kernot – Cheryl too is likely to be firing on less than all cylinders for some time yet. Federal Labor Party contacts of mine indicate she is still suffering from a debilitating condition known by its medical name, pacifierexpectoratus. Some of her colleagues even hint that her illness may be worse than is being acknowledge publicly. Several of them to whom I spoke even made reference to the former senator’s workload and an iron lung.

Peter Costello – The man with an eye on John Howard’s job will make a move to position himself for succession. Like another former treasurer seeking to be prime minister, Mr Costello is searching for a circuit-breaker. Paul Keating’s was his now infamous “off-the-record” speech to the Canberra press gallery in which he described himself as the Placido Domingo of Australian politics and alluded to his lack of belief in then PM Bob Hawke’s leadership skills. Mr Costello, I understand, is working on drawing a similar line in the sand unless Mr Howard agrees to hand over the leadership soon. The only thing stopping Mr Costello from making such an overt challenge is his inability to find a contemporary singer or entertainer with whom he can compare himself and his political skills. His minders have apparently suggested several names – Col Joye, Sandy Scott, Frank Ifield, and even Julie Anthony. It is only a matter of time before he makes his move.

Peter Reith – Watch out for a major shift in Mr Reith’s approach to his job. I had the good fortune to bump into our Minister for Industrial Relations at an airport lounge in Melbourne recently. We had a brief chat and, I can report exclusively that Mr Reith is planning a significant change in policy direction – no doubt with a view to improving his chances of securing the prime ministership against Mr Costello. Mr Reith told me he plans to abandon his confrontational approach to industrial relations. He intends taking a softer line on unions – actively encouraging people to join them – and will seek to amend previously enacted legislation which he now regards as being too heavily weighted in favour of employers. He also intends overhauling the industrial commission to allow it to be a genuine and impartial forum for settling disputes. He will also abandon his push for individual workplace agreements in favour of restoring collective bargaining with registered trade unions as recognised negotiators. He told me he plans to announce all these changes in a major speech he is now drafting. I can even tell you the date he plans to deliver it – 1 April 2000. Remember, you read it here first.

Bronwyn Bishop – Now there’s a name we haven’t heard for a long time – a situation likely to continue well into the new year.

Readers should bear in mind, as I trust you always do, that opinions expressed through this column are my own and you are free to disagree with them.
Indeed, I would welcome your comments on matters canvassed in my column.
After writing for The Bug for several years now, I am yet to receive any correspondence from what I know must be my avid readers.
You can e-mail me at The Bug and I will be delighted to respond.

Rufus Badinage MBE, now retired, is one of Australia’s leading experts
on politics and public administration having worked as a senior bureaucrat
for various state and federal governments. Rufus drinks and recommends Pura Milk.